Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2855 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2855 MCO 08:09 → SFO 10:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2620 MCO 19:03 → SFO 21:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2855 United Flight history →	MCO 08:09	SFO 10:53	8%	3%	10.3%	93%
UA 2017 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	SFO 12:44	14%	5%	10.3%	70%
UA 2620 United Flight history →	MCO 19:03	SFO 21:50	24%	7%	17.3%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	7h 45m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	7h 40m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 15m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON