Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2436 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 2436 MCO 07:00 → BOS 10:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1152 MCO 16:37 → BOS 19:50 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2436 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	BOS 10:10	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
B6 1452 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:29	BOS 09:30	7%	3%	1.0%	85%
F9 1978 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:00	BOS 09:09	9%	4%	0.9%	93%
B6 552 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:30	BOS 12:32	14%	5%	7.3%	90%
DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:16	BOS 14:22	15%	6%	13.1%	82%
AA 2735 American Flight history →	MCO 13:06	BOS 16:07	26%	8%	15.9%	74%
B6 252 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:28	BOS 15:35	30%	12%	13.6%	61%
DL 888 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:59	BOS 23:20	30%	11%	17.5%	58%
B6 52 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:30	BOS 16:38	32%	16%	16.0%	72%
B6 2052 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:48	BOS 21:59	43%	21%	17.7%	55%
B6 1152 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:37	BOS 19:50	43%	21%	16.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON