Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 484 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 484 MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1205 MCO 20:00 → LAX 22:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 484 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:28	LAX 08:35	7%	2%	0.9%	95%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LAX 09:17	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 504 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAX 11:49	11%	4%	11.3%	92%
AA 1928 American Flight history →	MCO 07:12	LAX 09:25	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1748 American Flight history →	MCO 10:34	LAX 12:47	15%	4%	10.0%	86%
DL 382 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:25	LAX 19:42	16%	9%	16.9%	70%
WN 4495 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:20	LAX 11:25	18%	4%	9.6%	88%
UA 1213 United Flight history →	MCO 19:37	LAX 21:55	20%	8%	17.4%	85%
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:30	LAX 17:57	20%	13%	19.1%	80%
DL 872 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LAX 21:30	21%	10%	17.7%	64%
AA 1205 American Flight history →	MCO 20:00	LAX 22:15	26%	10%	17.4%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	7h 10m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:15 → PHX 08:45WN 2680	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431	7h 05m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON