Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 777 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 777 Alaska Flight history →	PAE 07:00	LAS 09:32	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
AS 605 Alaska Flight history →	PAE 18:21	LAS 20:54	23%	9%	1.8%	91%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon	1h 12m Portland	PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06AS 778	4h 33m	94%	71%
Alaska Details →	PAE 11:05 → SFO 13:16AS 2139 · flown by Horizon	2h 36m San Francisco	SFO 15:52 → LAS 17:33AS 776	6h 28m	95%	59%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:00 → SAN 10:53AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	1h 37m San Diego	SAN 12:30 → LAS 13:58AS 2255 · flown by Horizon	5h 58m	97%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON