tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2365 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PAE 12:33 PDX 13:34 12% 4% 4.0% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → PAE 09:44 → LAX 12:33AS 2278 · flown by Horizon 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 7h 03m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 07:57 → SNA 10:48AS 2270 · flown by Horizon 3h 17m Santa Ana SNA 14:05 → PDX 16:29AS 712 8h 32m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 07:00 → LAS 09:32AS 777 1h 28m Las Vegas LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467 6h 20m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 08:00 → SAN 10:53AS 2437 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m San Diego SAN 14:03 → PDX 16:36AS 1402 8h 36m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 14:52 → PHX 17:50AS 515 3h 06m Phoenix PHX 20:56 → PDX 23:38AS 650 8h 46m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 11:05 → SFO 13:16AS 2139 · flown by Horizon 1h 46m San Francisco SFO 15:02 → PDX 16:47AS 1302 5h 42m 83% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON