tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2437 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PAE 08:00 SAN 10:53 17% 3% 0.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon 1h 21m Portland PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312 4h 56m 94% 64%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 11:05 → SFO 13:16AS 2139 · flown by Horizon 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 16:24 → SAN 18:09AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 98% 62%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 07:00 → LAS 09:32AS 777 1h 39m Las Vegas LAS 11:11 → SAN 12:29AS 2416 · flown by Horizon 5h 29m 98% 60%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 14:52 → PHX 17:50AS 515 1h 03m Phoenix PHX 18:53 → SAN 20:23AS 3060 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 78% 48%
AlaskaDetails → PAE 10:36 → PHX 13:34AS 747 1h 39m Phoenix PHX 15:13 → SAN 16:35AS 2028 · flown by Horizon 5h 59m 94% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON