Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 2139 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PAE 11:05	SFO 13:16	50%	17%	0.8%	50%
AS 2248 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PAE 19:16	SFO 21:28	87%	54%	0.0%	13%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 07:57 → SNA 10:48AS 2270 · flown by Horizon	2h 18m Santa Ana	SNA 13:06 → SFO 14:51AS 561	6h 54m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	4h 07m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	PAE 09:44 → LAX 12:33AS 2278 · flown by Horizon	3h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 16:25 → SFO 17:47AS 1610	8h 03m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:00 → SAN 10:53AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	2h 37m San Diego	SAN 13:30 → SFO 15:14AS 3352 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	PAE 18:21 → LAS 20:54AS 605	1h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 22:05 → SFO 23:42AS 613	5h 21m	79%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON