Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 322 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46%.

Safest bet that day B6 322 PBI 06:40 → BOS 09:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 2322 PBI 19:55 → BOS 23:08 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 322 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 06:40	BOS 09:49	7%	3%	1.2%	85%
DL 1205 Delta Flight history →	PBI 13:40	BOS 17:01	28%	15%	1.5%	32%
B6 22 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 17:25	BOS 20:39	46%	28%	6.3%	52%
B6 2322 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 19:55	BOS 23:08	46%	26%	3.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON