tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 6h 24m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PBI 09:00 → ATL 10:47DL 1106 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 7h 03m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 11:30 → BNA 12:50WN 4599 2h 35m Nashville BNA 15:25 → DAL 17:20WN 489 6h 50m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → PBI 11:02 → ATL 12:51DL 1311 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 7h 52m 99% 76%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 06:10 → MCO 07:10WN 3083 2h 15m Orlando MCO 09:25 → DAL 11:00WN 167 5h 50m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104 6h 30m 96% 71%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 14:40 → BWI 17:05WN 1072 2h 55m Baltimore BWI 20:00 → DAL 22:10WN 693 8h 30m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PBI 13:59 → ATL 15:54DL 1190 50m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 4h 55m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON