Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4431 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4431 PBI 11:19 → DCA 13:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 24 PBI 14:32 → DCA 16:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4431 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PBI 11:19	DCA 13:59	15%	4%	1.2%	75%
B6 2334 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 10:41	DCA 13:05	19%	8%	1.4%	70%
AA 2281 American Flight history →	PBI 15:25	DCA 17:58	29%	14%	6.3%	58%
B6 24 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:32	DCA 16:59	34%	14%	4.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON