Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1220 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1220 PBI 07:04 → DFW 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2282 PBI 18:44 → DFW 21:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1220 American Flight history →	PBI 07:04	DFW 09:15	6%	2%	1.2%	90%
AA 2276 American Flight history →	PBI 14:14	DFW 16:28	28%	11%	5.8%	61%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	PBI 18:44	DFW 21:00	32%	12%	5.5%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON