tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2926 at 12:25, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2926 Delta Flight history → PBI 12:25 DTW 15:20 20% 6% 1.3% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 56m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → PBI 05:43 → CLT 07:40AA 2848 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → DTW 13:01AA 1781 7h 18m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PBI 09:00 → ATL 10:47DL 1106 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 6h 42m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PBI 07:20 → LGA 10:10DL 2532 2h 45m New York LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122 7h 31m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PBI 10:00 → ATL 11:47DL 1266 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005 7h 27m 100% 79%
JetBlueDetails → PBI 06:40 → BOS 09:49B6 322 1h 54m Boston BOS 11:43 → DTW 13:51B6 837 7h 11m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:50 → ATL 14:48DL 1527 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 7h 23m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PBI 10:09 → CLT 12:07AA 2278 1h 36m Charlotte CLT 13:43 → DTW 15:31AA 1770 5h 22m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PBI 17:15 → EWR 20:15UA 1395 1h 00m Newark EWR 21:15 → DTW 23:24UA 3412 · flown by Republic 6h 09m 62% 47%
UnitedDetails → PBI 17:05 → IAH 18:59UA 1752 51m Houston IAH 19:50 → DTW 23:44UA 2237 6h 39m 58% 45%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 14:40 → BWI 17:05WN 1072 55m Baltimore BWI 18:00 → DTW 19:35WN 4159 4h 55m 61% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON