Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2158 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 2158 PBI 06:00 → EWR 08:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 144 PBI 18:08 → EWR 21:00 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2158 United Flight history →	PBI 06:00	EWR 08:54	4%	2%	1.1%	94%
B6 2144 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 07:45	EWR 10:31	9%	3%	1.3%	67%
UA 1197 United Flight history →	PBI 11:04	EWR 14:00	19%	8%	1.3%	89%
UA 353 United Flight history →	PBI 13:12	EWR 16:13	33%	13%	1.4%	74%
UA 1187 United Flight history →	PBI 19:30	EWR 22:30	35%	16%	3.6%	68%
UA 1395 United Flight history →	PBI 17:15	EWR 20:15	38%	18%	5.8%	61%
B6 144 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 18:08	EWR 21:00	47%	17%	5.9%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON