Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1368 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–36%.

Safest bet that day B6 1368 PBI 06:35 → HPN 09:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 1468 PBI 19:08 → HPN 22:00 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1368 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 06:35	HPN 09:26	5%	3%	1.4%	78%
B6 1168 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:40	HPN 17:38	34%	17%	6.1%	70%
B6 368 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 20:06	HPN 23:00	34%	17%	4.2%	73%
B6 1468 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 19:08	HPN 22:00	36%	17%	5.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON