tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 37m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PBI 07:00 → ATL 08:50DL 1352 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 01m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → PBI 05:43 → CLT 07:40AA 2848 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA 6h 55m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PBI 10:00 → ATL 11:47DL 1266 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 46m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PBI 06:00 → EWR 08:54UA 2158 1h 11m Newark EWR 10:05 → IAD 11:28UA 1691 5h 28m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PBI 11:02 → ATL 12:51DL 1311 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 7h 28m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 46m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PBI 13:59 → ATL 15:54DL 1190 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 7h 04m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA 4h 38m 69% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON