Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 27–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 444 PBI 11:05 → ISP 13:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest B6 544 PBI 13:13 → ISP 15:58 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 444 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 11:05	ISP 13:50	27%	9%	1.3%	66%
WN 3192 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 14:45	ISP 17:25	31%	14%	4.1%	79%worse than usual
B6 544 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 13:13	ISP 15:58	34%	11%	1.6%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON