Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 854 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day B6 854 PBI 06:46 → JFK 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1638 PBI 19:59 → JFK 22:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 854 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 06:46	JFK 09:35	5%	3%	1.3%	90%
B6 1154 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 10:44	JFK 13:34	18%	7%	1.8%	72%
DL 2623 Delta Flight history →	PBI 11:59	JFK 14:54	23%	6%	2.6%	75%
B6 1054 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:08	JFK 17:06	32%	13%	5.9%	87%worse than usual
DL 1638 Delta Flight history →	PBI 19:59	JFK 22:59	34%	17%	4.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON