tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 07:00 → ATL 08:50DL 1352 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 12m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PBI 09:00 → ATL 10:47DL 1106 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 10h 05m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → PBI 07:08 → PHL 09:52AA 2642 3h 30m Philadelphia PHL 13:22 → LAX 16:05AA 2031 11h 57m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → PBI 05:43 → CLT 07:40AA 2848 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995 8h 13m 97% 84%
JetBlueDetails → PBI 06:46 → JFK 09:35B6 854 1h 25m New York JFK 11:00 → LAX 14:05B6 1123 10h 19m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PBI 10:00 → ATL 11:47DL 1266 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → LAX 17:22DL 1219 10h 22m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PBI 06:00 → EWR 08:54UA 2158 3h 06m Newark EWR 12:00 → LAX 14:38UA 212 11h 38m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PBI 16:05 → PHL 18:54AA 2280 58m Philadelphia PHL 19:52 → LAX 22:55AA 2197 9h 50m 69% 50%
AmericanDetails → PBI 18:54 → ORD 21:30AA 2275 1h 00m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 8h 58m 65% 44%
UnitedDetails → PBI 17:05 → IAH 18:59UA 1752 51m Houston IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483 7h 21m 58% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON