Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2532 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 2532 PBI 07:20 → LGA 10:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1962 PBI 18:30 → LGA 21:18 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2532 Delta Flight history →	PBI 07:20	LGA 10:10	7%	2%	1.4%	92%
B6 1062 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 08:00	LGA 10:46	12%	4%	1.3%	92%
DL 2526 Delta Flight history →	PBI 10:44	LGA 13:33	18%	6%	1.7%	76%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PBI 15:18	LGA 18:19	31%	12%	9.2%	69%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history →	PBI 15:20	LGA 18:22	33%	14%	6.3%	64%
DL 2466 Delta Flight history →	PBI 19:37	LGA 22:33	38%	15%	4.1%	50%
B6 1962 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 18:30	LGA 21:18	48%	22%	5.4%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON