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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 56m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50WN 3189 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435 7h 05m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PBI 10:00 → ATL 11:47DL 1266 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 7h 15m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 11:30 → BNA 12:50WN 4599 3h 25m Nashville BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241 7h 20m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 06:10 → MCO 07:10WN 3083 2h 00m Orlando MCO 09:10 → MDW 10:55WN 4037 5h 45m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 14:40 → BWI 17:05WN 1072 1h 55m Baltimore BWI 19:00 → MDW 20:05WN 1005 6h 25m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 20m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:25 → DTW 15:20DL 2926 2h 47m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 7h 04m 98% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON