tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → PBI 07:04 → DFW 09:15AA 1220 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:45AA 2242 7h 41m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:50 → ATL 14:48DL 1527 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 8h 40m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 11:30 → BNA 12:50WN 4599 1h 05m Nashville BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855 7h 30m 86% 68%
UnitedDetails → PBI 15:58 → ORD 18:32UA 312 1h 46m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 9h 53m 86% 65%
JetBlueDetails → PBI 14:08 → JFK 17:06B6 1054 2h 24m New York JFK 19:30 → ONT 22:36B6 355 11h 28m 93% 64%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 14:40 → BWI 17:05WN 1072 3h 05m Baltimore BWI 20:10 → ONT 22:25WN 200 10h 45m 100% 62%
DeltaDetails → PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 7h 55m 87% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 20:43 → ONT 22:34AA 3036 8h 07m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON