Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 27–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2269 PBI 13:05 → ORD 15:29 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2275 PBI 18:54 → ORD 21:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2269 American Flight history →	PBI 13:05	ORD 15:29	27%	11%	1.7%	78%
UA 312 United Flight history →	PBI 15:58	ORD 18:32	32%	13%	4.6%	62%
AA 2275 American Flight history →	PBI 18:54	ORD 21:30	35%	12%	5.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON