Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2642 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 2642 PBI 07:08 → PHL 09:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2582 PBI 20:20 → PHL 23:06 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2642 American Flight history →	PBI 07:08	PHL 09:52	5%	3%	1.0%	98%
AA 2271 American Flight history →	PBI 12:52	PHL 15:40	21%	9%	1.6%	86%
AA 2280 American Flight history →	PBI 16:05	PHL 18:54	31%	15%	4.3%	54%
F9 2582 Frontier Flight history →	PBI 20:20	PHL 23:06	45%	23%	5.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON