tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 388 at 11:11, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 388 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 11:11 PVD 14:08 20% 6% 1.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 6h 29m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50WN 3189 55m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → PVD 12:05WN 4628 4h 40m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → PBI 05:43 → CLT 07:40AA 2848 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → PVD 10:57AA 2336 5h 14m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → PBI 09:00 → ATL 10:47DL 1106 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 7h 29m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → PBI 10:09 → CLT 12:07AA 2278 1h 37m Charlotte CLT 13:44 → PVD 15:48AA 2318 5h 39m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → PBI 07:08 → PHL 09:52AA 2642 3h 15m Philadelphia PHL 13:07 → PVD 14:29AA 5189 · flown by PSA 7h 21m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:50 → ATL 14:48DL 1527 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 7h 19m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → PBI 11:19 → DCA 13:59AA 4431 · flown by Republic 1h 30m Washington DCA 15:29 → PVD 17:02AA 337 5h 43m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PBI 15:25 → DCA 17:58AA 2281 1h 01m Washington DCA 18:59 → PVD 20:34AA 4679 · flown by Republic 5h 09m 71% 56%
DeltaDetails → PBI 18:27 → ATL 20:34DL 1458 53m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 5h 30m 69% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON