tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: JetBlue via JFK, leaving 06:46, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
JetBlueDetails → PBI 06:46 → JFK 09:35B6 854 55m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 22m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → PBI 05:43 → CLT 07:40AA 2848 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 09:40 → SFO 12:19AA 2562 9h 36m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → PBI 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1301 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 50m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PBI 06:00 → EWR 08:54UA 2158 1h 46m Newark EWR 10:40 → SFO 13:51UA 648 10h 51m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 33m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PBI 10:00 → ATL 11:47DL 1266 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 10h 31m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → PBI 17:05 → IAH 18:59UA 1752 3h 00m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 10h 00m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → PBI 08:03 → CLT 10:05AA 1853 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 12:08 → SFO 14:37AA 1687 9h 34m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PBI 16:05 → PHL 18:54AA 2280 52m Philadelphia PHL 19:46 → SFO 23:10AA 3166 10h 05m 68% 48%
UnitedDetails → PBI 13:12 → EWR 16:13UA 353 47m Newark EWR 17:00 → SFO 20:37UA 1340 10h 25m 50% 35%
AmericanDetails → PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270 47m Charlotte CLT 20:18 → SFO 22:48AA 1580 8h 21m 55% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON