tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:50 → ATL 14:48DL 1527 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 02m 97% 80%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50WN 3189 3h 00m Baltimore BWI 12:50 → SJC 15:25WN 186 11h 00m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → PBI 07:04 → DFW 09:15AA 1220 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:00 → SJC 13:33AA 436 9h 29m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 54m 94% 77%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 11:30 → BNA 12:50WN 4599 2h 15m Nashville BNA 15:05 → SJC 17:40WN 674 9h 10m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → PBI 15:58 → ORD 18:32UA 312 1h 26m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 45m 79% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON