Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1615 PDX 07:11 → ANC 10:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 775 PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 1615 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:11	ANC 10:02	14%	2%	0.8%	94%
AS 271 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	ANC 20:38	15%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 1565 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:30	ANC 17:16	16%	2%	0.7%	85%
AS 775 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	ANC 13:22	17%	2%	0.7%	81%
AS 2192 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:30	ANC 00:25	21%	7%	1.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON