tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via DFW, leaving 00:45, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 540 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 AUS 16:38 19% 4% 0.6% 86%
AS 1370 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:39 AUS 23:49 20% 5% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 08:40 → AUS 13:25WN 2830 6h 25m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55DL 3950 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 34m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 49m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → AUS 14:39UA 1326 7h 24m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 7h 53m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → AUS 17:01DL 1042 9h 01m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 3h 59m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 8h 54m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PDX 13:05 → SAN 15:30WN 2809 50m San Diego SAN 16:20 → AUS 21:15WN 3476 6h 10m 54% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON