tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1376 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 BNA 17:00 20% 4% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724 6h 25m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 19m Denver DEN 09:50 → BNA 13:33UA 1048 6h 33m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 6h 52m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 16m San Francisco SFO 09:17 → BNA 15:53UA 499 8h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214 6h 01m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171 2h 31m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126 8h 20m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 9h 38m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → PDX 00:45 → DFW 06:33AA 1460 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:25 → BNA 09:26AA 3397 · flown by Envoy 6h 41m 91% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon 48m Seattle SEA 23:15 → BNA 05:40 +1AS 382 6h 10m 75% 53%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 11:50 → MDW 17:45WN 3202 55m Chicago MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073 6h 20m 72% 52%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 52m Seattle SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815 6h 24m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON