Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 342 PDX 14:58 → BOI 17:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 1524 PDX 21:30 → BOI 23:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 342 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:58	BOI 17:16	15%	3%	0.6%	87%
AS 1524 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:30	BOI 23:48	20%	5%	0.6%	71%
AS 2161 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:00	BOI 09:19	2%	0%	1.9%	98%
AS 2089 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:30	BOI 12:49	4%	1%	0.0%	96%
AS 2104 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:31	BOI 19:48	29%	10%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON