Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 358 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 358 PDX 07:00 → BOS 15:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 396 PDX 14:16 → BOS 22:40 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 358 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	BOS 15:30	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
AS 436 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:56	BOS 06:20	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
B6 96 JetBlue Flight history →	PDX 23:27	BOS 07:48	26%	9%	1.1%	65%
B6 396 JetBlue Flight history →	PDX 14:16	BOS 22:40	27%	11%	0.8%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 12m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 51m	99%	84%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 09m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 44m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON