Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 374 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:12	BWI 15:16	10%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 3194 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 21:20	BWI 05:15	18%	4%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 09m	98%	91%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	2h 32m San Francisco	SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664	9h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	9h 15m	100%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079	9h 46m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	8h 23m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	PDX 06:00 → MDW 11:50WN 1148	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	8h 25m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	10h 02m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PDX 14:08 → ATL 21:59DL 2206	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	7h 31m	75%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON