tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1310 American Flight history → PDX 05:49 CLT 13:53 8% 2% 0.6% 96%
AA 1170 American Flight history → PDX 21:47 CLT 05:44 15% 4% 0.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 06:55 → CLT 10:24DL 1827 6h 51m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 07m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 9h 21m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 06:00 → MDW 11:50WN 1148 1h 10m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343 7h 00m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415 3h 13m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 8h 58m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 19m Denver DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633 7h 12m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 06m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → CLT 17:30AA 1678 9h 10m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → PDX 00:45 → DFW 06:33AA 1460 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:30 → CLT 12:10AA 1690 8h 25m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON