Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 15:15	DAL 21:00	27%	7%	0.6%	30%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PDX 05:50 → DEN 09:15WN 3195	50m Denver	DEN 10:05 → DAL 13:10WN 1518	5h 20m	95%	82%
Southwest Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 07:55WN 4666	3h 00m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	8h 00m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344	3h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218	8h 40m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	PDX 07:25 → SJC 09:15WN 3209	2h 25m San Jose	SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965	7h 40m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	9h 19m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	PDX 09:15 → PHX 11:50WN 3207	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 13:25 → DAL 17:50WN 3256	6h 35m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	8h 48m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	PDX 11:00 → DEN 14:30WN 1658	1h 25m Denver	DEN 15:55 → DAL 19:00WN 1388	6h 00m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON