Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3195 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3195 PDX 05:50 → DEN 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3198 PDX 17:35 → DEN 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3195 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 05:50	DEN 09:15	4%	1%	0.5%	93%
UA 459 United Flight history →	PDX 05:00	DEN 08:31	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 2375 United Flight history →	PDX 08:50	DEN 12:24	7%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 4099 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 07:30	DEN 11:00	8%	2%	0.5%	96%
AS 401 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:20	DEN 11:03	9%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 2334 United Flight history →	PDX 18:50	DEN 22:29	9%	5%	0.5%	90%
UA 2793 United Flight history →	PDX 11:05	DEN 14:43	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1411 United Flight history →	PDX 12:50	DEN 16:28	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	PDX 16:15	DEN 19:51	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
AS 1627 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 18:04	DEN 21:40	17%	6%	0.6%	69%
F9 1790 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:20	DEN 16:03	17%	5%	0.7%	82%
WN 1658 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 11:00	DEN 14:30	18%	4%	0.5%	76%
AS 1809 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:30	DEN 18:09	23%	6%	0.6%	67%
WN 2519 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 14:45	DEN 18:20	25%	7%	0.5%	51%
WN 3199 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 19:40	DEN 23:10	26%	8%	0.5%	45%
WN 3198 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 17:35	DEN 21:00	28%	9%	0.5%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON