Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 982 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 982 PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2283 PDX 23:41 → DFW 05:28 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 982 American Flight history →	PDX 05:07	DFW 10:57	8%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 2216 American Flight history →	PDX 06:39	DFW 12:28	8%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 1460 American Flight history →	PDX 00:45	DFW 06:33	9%	3%	0.9%	88%
AS 392 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	DFW 16:42	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 2287 American Flight history →	PDX 11:54	DFW 17:49	21%	8%	0.8%	70%
AA 2286 American Flight history →	PDX 13:34	DFW 19:30	22%	8%	0.9%	65%
AA 2283 American Flight history →	PDX 23:41	DFW 05:28	23%	7%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON