Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2171 Delta Flight history →	PDX 11:55	DTW 19:04	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 919 Delta Flight history →	PDX 23:15	DTW 06:22	19%	5%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	8h 09m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	6h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 39m	99%	88%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 34m San Francisco	SFO 08:35 → DTW 16:27UA 1642	8h 12m	99%	87%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 04m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	6h 27m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	3h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → DTW 05:12 +1DL 2841	8h 58m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	PDX 06:00 → MDW 11:50WN 1148	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 13:10 → DTW 15:20WN 4450	6h 20m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:28 → DTW 23:59DL 2255	7h 44m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON