Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 294 PDX 07:40 → EWR 16:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 2359 PDX 10:27 → EWR 18:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 294 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:40	EWR 16:05	13%	4%	0.8%	83%
AS 1631 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:31	EWR 05:59	15%	3%	1.1%	94%
UA 1802 United Flight history →	PDX 22:52	EWR 07:06	17%	5%	1.0%	87%
UA 2359 United Flight history →	PDX 10:27	EWR 18:44	18%	7%	0.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 16m	98%	90%
United Details →	PDX 18:50 → DEN 22:29UA 2334	1h 30m Denver	DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745	7h 50m	95%	84%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	1h 12m Seattle	SEA 07:05 → EWR 15:31AS 239	7h 31m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON