Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 21:30, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1521 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:59	FAI 00:55	16%	3%	1.1%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 17:50 → ANC 20:38AS 271	2h 20m Anchorage	ANC 22:58 → FAI 23:59AS 2277 · flown by Horizon	7h 09m	100%	93%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775	2h 06m Anchorage	ANC 15:28 → FAI 16:31AS 2103 · flown by Horizon	7h 01m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:11 → ANC 10:02AS 1615	2h 18m Anchorage	ANC 12:20 → FAI 13:24AS 1336	7h 13m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:16AS 1565	3h 22m Anchorage	ANC 20:38 → FAI 21:42AS 1612	8h 12m	96%	80%
United Details →	PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411	2h 56m Denver	DEN 19:24 → FAI 22:59UA 250	11h 09m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → FAI 20:49DL 1055	10h 03m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	PDX 07:05 → SEA 08:15DL 4471 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	7h 37m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:50 → SEA 18:59DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	7h 40m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON