tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3285 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PDX 15:08 FAT 17:05 13% 5% 0.6% 81%
AS 3024 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PDX 18:58 FAT 20:56 13% 6% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → FAT 10:55WN 1423 5h 55m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 08:20 → FAT 09:39UA 5942 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 11:05 → DEN 14:43UA 2793 1h 14m Denver DEN 15:57 → FAT 17:42UA 4806 · flown by SkyWest 6h 37m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 21m Phoenix PHX 10:21 → FAT 12:01AA 1831 6h 41m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m Seattle SEA 20:25 → FAT 22:46AS 3343 · flown by SkyWest 7h 16m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 2h 57m Denver DEN 19:25 → FAT 20:55UA 1172 8h 05m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest 55m Seattle SEA 17:25 → FAT 19:36AS 393 4h 06m 73% 51%
AmericanDetails → PDX 13:34 → DFW 19:30AA 2286 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:24 → FAT 21:43AA 2958 8h 09m 73% 48%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:46 → SAN 13:27AS 1394 52m San Diego SAN 14:19 → FAT 15:42AS 3389 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON