Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 27–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 879 PDX 07:46 → HNL 10:36 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest AS 813 PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 879 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:46	HNL 10:36	27%	5%	0.9%	58%
AS 841 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:32	HNL 20:24	28%	8%	0.9%	53%
AS 813 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	HNL 13:28	31%	7%	1.1%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00WN 3211	1h 30m Sacramento	SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:00WN 3781	8h 30m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:00 → OGG 09:58AS 739	1h 59m Kahului	OGG 11:57 → HNL 12:40AS 1115	8h 40m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:14 → LIH 11:08AS 883	1h 47m Lihue	LIH 12:55 → HNL 13:34AS 1074	8h 20m	100%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON