tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 498 United Flight history → PDX 23:30 IAD 07:32 9% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 18:50 → DEN 22:29UA 2334 1h 30m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 7h 37m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 49m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 34m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 9h 04m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306 2h 40m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 02m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → IAD 16:25UA 1849 8h 10m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171 2h 34m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 8h 18m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON