Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 462 PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1927 PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 462 United Flight history →	PDX 07:13	IAH 13:30	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AS 1420 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:05	IAH 13:35	11%	2%	0.9%	84%
UA 780 United Flight history →	PDX 23:59	IAH 06:05	11%	4%	0.7%	76%
UA 1927 United Flight history →	PDX 13:02	IAH 19:21	14%	5%	0.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502	5h 46m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 08m	93%	75%
United Details →	PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411	50m Denver	DEN 17:18 → IAH 20:55UA 1585	6h 05m	85%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON