Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3013 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:30	IDA 13:06	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
G4 1594 Allegiant	PDX 12:20	IDA 15:00	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → IDA 10:43DL 3944 · flown by SkyWest	3h 58m	98%	92%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 14m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	7h 25m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest	4h 03m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → IDA 14:36DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	3h 51m	90%	83%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	3h 11m Denver	DEN 15:35 → IDA 17:19UA 5322 · flown by SkyWest	7h 29m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → IDA 22:32DL 2608	4h 18m	93%	81%
Alaska Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 19:50 → IDA 22:39AS 3423 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	PDX 09:19 → SEA 10:21AS 427	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 12:45 → IDA 15:37AS 3490 · flown by SkyWest	5h 18m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON