Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 451 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 451 PDX 07:05 → JFK 15:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 18 PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 451 Delta Flight history →	PDX 07:05	JFK 15:46	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2139 Delta Flight history →	PDX 22:40	JFK 06:55	13%	5%	0.7%	92%
AS 18 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:47	JFK 19:23	22%	5%	0.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 06m	97%	91%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 07:00 → JFK 15:29AS 26	7h 29m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:19 → SEA 08:20AS 2420 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 09:29 → JFK 17:55AS 34	7h 36m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON