tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 252 Alaska Flight history → PDX 08:00 KOA 10:55 11% 3% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00WN 3211 3h 00m Sacramento SMF 10:00 → KOA 12:20WN 3783 9h 50m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 8h 25m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 2h 20m Las Vegas LAS 09:30 → KOA 12:50WN 4452 10h 50m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 44m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 11h 24m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 46m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 11:16 → SFO 13:07UA 1613 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → KOA 19:31UA 1723 11h 15m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 11h 03m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 09:19 → SEA 10:21AS 427 1h 06m Seattle SEA 11:27 → KOA 14:35AS 204 8h 16m 70% 51%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:46 → HNL 10:36AS 879 52m Honolulu HNL 11:28 → KOA 12:16AS 1078 7h 30m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON