Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 344 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 344 PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2256 PDX 18:00 → LAS 20:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 344 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 05:00	LAS 07:10	3%	1%	0.5%	92%
AS 627 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:37	LAS 09:55	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 1628 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:00	LAS 11:19	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 757 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAS 13:11	17%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 4672 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 10:35	LAS 12:45	17%	4%	0.6%	69%
AS 531 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	LAS 20:12	20%	7%	0.6%	84%
AS 778 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:46	LAS 17:06	20%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 4732 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 16:25	LAS 18:40	27%	9%	0.6%	78%
F9 1106 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 17:49	LAS 20:09	29%	10%	1.7%	71%
WN 2256 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 18:00	LAS 20:15	30%	10%	0.6%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON