Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2947 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2947 PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4500 PDX 17:36 → LAX 20:04 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2947 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:30	LAX 09:00	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
AS 581 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:37	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 6290 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:42	10%	5%	0.5%	85%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	PDX 10:53	LAX 13:18	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
AS 695 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAX 13:20	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:25	LAX 15:47	13%	5%	0.6%	91%
DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	PDX 20:30	LAX 23:00	14%	6%	0.7%	89%
AS 713 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:39	LAX 17:06	17%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:00	17%	6%	0.6%	88%
AS 278 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:09	18%	6%	0.6%	87%
AS 1389 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:27	LAX 23:56	21%	6%	0.6%	82%
F9 4500 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 17:36	LAX 20:04	30%	10%	1.1%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON