tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 883 Alaska Flight history → PDX 08:14 LIH 11:08 13% 3% 0.7% 97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 04m San Francisco SFO 09:05 → LIH 11:50UA 1384 9h 35m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 2h 15m Las Vegas LAS 09:25 → LIH 12:45WN 2262 10h 45m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 11:16 → SFO 13:07UA 1613 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 11h 26m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 12h 16m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 1h 27m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 48m 95% 75%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:00 → OGG 09:58AS 739 2h 18m Kahului OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049 9h 06m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 43m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 09:19 → SEA 10:21AS 427 1h 07m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 8h 21m 72% 49%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24AS 841 54m Honolulu HNL 21:18 → LIH 21:59AS 1173 7h 27m 67% 47%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:46 → HNL 10:36AS 879 50m Honolulu HNL 11:26 → LIH 12:09AS 1063 7h 23m 60% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON