tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1525 at 11:30, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1525 Alaska Flight history → PDX 11:30 MCI 16:53 17% 3% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PDX 00:45 → DFW 06:33AA 1460 3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy 8h 59m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:39 → MCI 12:26UA 2159 5h 26m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 12m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → PDX 06:07 → ORD 12:17AA 2933 2h 41m Chicago ORD 14:58 → MCI 16:49AA 4745 · flown by Republic 8h 42m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → PDX 13:45 → ORD 19:50AA 3303 2h 45m Chicago ORD 22:35 → MCI 00:19 +1AA 3695 · flown by Envoy 8h 34m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 07:55WN 4666 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → MCI 15:00WN 3290 7h 40m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 1h 55m Seattle SEA 07:48 → MCI 13:21AS 418 6h 21m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 14:25 → ORD 20:38UA 2336 47m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 71% 55%
AmericanDetails → PDX 13:34 → DFW 19:30AA 2286 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:19 → MCI 21:57AA 2267 6h 23m 69% 47%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 52m Seattle SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00DL 2256 5h 30m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON